Each week, more bad news emerges on the health of the international education sectors in Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Universities must adapt.
Canada
ICEF Monitor reported ApplyBoard’s analysis that new international student numbers could drop by almost 50% in 2024.
To blame: the implementation of provincial quotas, the introduction of a requirement for prospective students to evidence a savings level of CDN$ 20,635 (over double the previous level), and a tightening of restrictions for those eligible for post study work rights. The number of Indian students approved for study permits in the first six months of 2024 dropped by 50%, with even larger declines from Nepal (76%), Nigeria (70%) and the Philippines (65%).
Australia
In a move dubbed by a sector representative as “draconian” and “interventionist” new international student enrolments are now capped at 270,000. An AUD$4bn economic hit and 22,000 job losses are anticipated in 2025. When the caps per university were published, successful international recruiters the University of Sydney, and the University of Melbourne were amongst the big losers. The quotas imposed on them represent a significant reduction compared to their current enrolment numbers. These institutions were exposed. They both have an international student mix of around 40%.
United Kingdom
Since the discontinuation of visas for the dependants of international students on taught postgraduate programmes, enrolments have been heavily impacted. Post-1992 universities are disproportionately affected. A more upbeat tone was set by a recent Guardian article, which reported an improvement in the sentiment of prospective international students towards study in the UK. This is due to the Labour government’s election victory and the support that the new education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, has voiced for the sector. But there are no planned moves to rescind the dependant ban. With an increase to the threshold for demonstrating sufficient maintenance funds imminent, along with the rise earlier in 2024 to the NHS surcharge, the UK international higher education sector is not expecting a significant upturn in its fortunes in the near future.
A recent article in the Economist struck a bleak note, stating that ‘the foreigner boom is now turning into a bust.’
Nevertheless, as Michael Salmon reports of Wonkhe, the 17% decrease year-to-date in international student visas applications is perhaps better than many predicted. When the dust clears after September intake, another important month for visa issuance, we will have a better sense of how UK institutions have fared, and the starting point for enrolment numbers in the new cycle. The government’s commitment to the Graduate Route (enabling students to search for employment in the UK up to 2 years after graduation), and the headline grabbing measures in Australia and Canada, could still provide some respite for the UK sector.
United States
The United States, with its lower exposure to international students, is arguably going to benefit from the volatility in policy making elsewhere. However, as highlighted by, Jill Blondin, associate vice-provost for global initiatives at Virginia Commonwealth University in a recent online webinar, the high rate of visa refusals and the difficulty of getting visa appointments in key source markets such as India remains a barrier to the level of growth that may otherwise be expected.
Alternative destinations?
The growth in the choice of destinations for international students, and the fast moving developments in policy, has made an accurate tracking of the global picture of winners and losers more complex.*
This view appears to be at odds with IDP’s latest Emerging Futures research which positioned New Zealand at the bottom end of a value for money scale, according to the 11,500 students from 117 countries surveyed.
Some European destination markets are offering a credible alternative to English speaking countries, driven in part by an increase in the number of courses taught in English. France is one such example, with steady growth delivered over the last few years. It plans to welcome 500,000 international students by 2027, compared to 412,000 in the academic year 2022/3.
Ireland is another winner, following efforts geared towards developing internationalisation at its institutions, although its numbers remain comparatively small. The country hosted 35,000 international students in 2022/3, although these numbers look likely to grow.
China crisis?
Despite it still being a huge supplier of international students, a big shift in Chinese market demand has affected many destination markets in the recent years following the covid-19 pandemic with Australia and the United States particularly hard hit due to additional geopolitical tensions. But domestic economic problems, a reduction in perceptions of the value of an international education for future employment prospects, and a demographic decline have also played a significant part. It has become relatively attractive for students to stay at home for higher education, with local institutions improving their quality. With Chinese society becoming more inward looking, the rapid growth years for international recruiters appear to be over.
Domestic economic woes are impacting on Chinese student mobility
Indeed, study destinations across East Asia have risen in popularity in recent years, with an increasing number of internationally mobile students from the region choosing to study closer to home.
Alongside unfavourable Asian trends, several other key source markets supplying the big English-speaking destinations are suffering their own economic challenges. Nigeria is the largest international student source market in Sub-Saharan Africa. The weak Nigerian naira (NGN) has depreciated by about 75% against both the British pound sterling (GBP) and the US dollar (USD) since September 2022.
Future prospects
With such strong headwinds, driven by government policy changes, the strategic options available to higher education institutions in Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom are limited.
A few institutions will continue to diversify their risk and set-up directly in the key source markets.
Southampton University, a high ranked UK higher education institution. recently announced it would open a campus in India offering UK degrees to a planned 5,500 new students a year. It is the first high ranked institution to take advantage of the Indian government’s attempt to attract foreign universities, in order to meet the rising domestic demand which local providers are struggling to meet. Southampton has the advantage of being able to make a £30mn investment over the next decade in the enterprise.
From Hampshire to Gurugram
But such a bold move is not in the reach of many institutions. Seeking cost efficiencies, consolidation of services across institutions or full mergers remain firmly on the menu of options.
Elsewhere, others have resorted to appealing against the tightening policy.
Universities Canada posted on X, “Cuts to international study permits damage Canada’s reputation as a premier education destination, impacting institutions nationwide. It’s time for this to be the final reduction, allowing Canada and its universities to focus on rebuilding our global brand.”
At the moment this feels like a cry in the dark. Universities are in a battle for share with each other in a market where growth in student mobility is, at best, constrained.
Government policies on immigration in Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom mean that there are limited prospects, in the short to medium term, for a return of the rising tide that benefited all. Their higher education institutions must urgently adapt to this new reality.
Footnote
*Additionally, there is a significant lag in publishing enrolment data for many destinations. Jisc, the organisation that publishes higher education statistics in the UK only recently released its 2022/23 data, several months later than originally planned.
