The University of Essex’s decision, made at the end of last year, to close its Southend campus with the loss of 400 jobs highlights the stark strategic choices faced by many of the UK’s higher education institutions.

Interviewed on Radio 4’s PM programme, the Essex Vice-Chancellor – Professor Frances Bowen – pointed to falling international student revenues as being the main driving factor in the cost-cutting decision.  Enrolment numbers of overseas students have seen severe declines at both Colchester and Southend locations.  Evan Davies, the PM presenter, suggested a “flawed business model”. Previous unsustainable expansion in international recruitment is now exposed to significant government immigration policy changes, he stated.

University of Essex to focus on its Colchester campus

Glasgow Caledonian University is facing a major crisis on its London campus with a £33m revenue shortfall and the loss of 100 jobs.  Its enrolment numbers have reportedly declined from 1,624 students in the 2024-25 academic year to only 31 in the current academic year according to the Financial Times*.   Over-reliance on postgraduate recruitment from Pakistan and India – two of the markets most affected by recent market turmoil – were exacerbated by internal compliance problems and staff claims that they were pushed to focus on student volume at the expense of quality, according to the FT.

With the UK government’s international education strategy high on ambition but short on practical detail on how it can be executed, and with the global economic outlook rapidly worsening, what choices do UK universities have to ride this crisis in the sector?

Here are some of the main strategies that higher education leaders need to consider with urgency and rigour.   

Double down on winning market share for inbound international enrolments

This is still a very valid approach for some, but it is one which requires focused commercial, operational and education execution.   Sales and marketing teams must have a coherent plan of delivery.  In relevant countries, an ongoing investment in targeted promotion is required. This cannot be half-baked, short-term only and it needs to be funded at the right level.  For many source markets, this means rigorous agent selection, close relationship management of those agents and dedicated marketing campaigns to support the network.  The old school approach of exploratory or ad-hoc international officer recruitment trips – with an endless procession of agent meetings and in-office training sessions –  will not cut through in today’s tight, crowded, competitive markets. 

Before the current wave of pessimism in the many parts of the sector, what we regularly heard from higher education providers was their need to grab market share in their key core markets and/or to diversify enrolments through expanding their reach into new markets for their institutions.  But failure to deliver against such objectives was still commonplace, even though rising markets may have previously hidden mediocre performance. Now everyone is more exposed.

Many UK universities have been heavily reliant on one or more of India, China, Pakistan and Nigeria: inevitably as 60% of the total 622,000 non-EU enrolments came from these four source markets in the 2024/25 academic year.  

Many universities are underexposed in South East Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa (outside Nigeria) and Central Asia and therefore see these regions as opportunities.  South East Asia is a well-established recruitment region in which many universities are still punching below their weight.**

In South Asia, Nepal has been a boom market,  with enrolments increasing by 92% in the year to 2024/5 to 24,435 but there are still a number of universities which are underperforming against their potential there.

Just as thoroughbred racehorse trainers often know that their equine athletes do not perform to the same level of ability on every track, so university leaders must think carefully about the relevance of their own proposition to each target market. The success of effective market development needs sharp strategic planning, market selection and intelligent activation.

Horses for courses- but some universities are destined to be “also-rans“

Tilt to international undergraduates

Undergraduate students are a sweet spot for international recruiters, with their potential for much higher lifetime revenue returns on marketing investment.  A shrewd choice of markets can be part of the solution here as well. Nepal is an example of a growing undergraduate market and, crucially, one that is reachable faster through education agents’ access to existing demand for UK destination study.  However, in many cases, a coherent direct high school engagement strategy will be required alongside. Selecting the right high schools to focus on and giving decision makers in each school a reason to invest time in the relationship, is likely to be a slower burn, and needs a multi-year approach to the market development plan.

Select carefully from the many available flavours of transnational education

Transnational education received top billing in the UK government’s new international education strategy.  

Whilst some higher education actors have been called deluded, TNE is a rare growth story.  A recent UK Universities report highlights a 9.6% annual growth rate to over 650,000 students in 2023-24, closing in on the number of inbound UK students received in the same year.  In the current academic year, the TNE student volume level, when the data is eventually published, is likely to be higher than the inbound total.  A target of one million TNE students is achievable before 2030.   Countries including India and Saudi Arabia have regulated to encourage in-country ventures.   

But TNE is not a single uniform strategy, it is deployed in several forms with only 6.6% of registered students in 2023-24 studying in-person at overseas campuses of UK institutions.  Collaborative provision – such as joint or dual degrees – covered 42.8% of students.  25.9% of students were registered at partner institutions and 24.8% on distance, flexible or distributed learning programmes.  Over half the registered students were based in Asia.  173 UK higher institutions we involved in TNE, and nine providers taught over 15,000 TNE students each – with The Open University and the University of London leading the field.  China, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Egypt and Singapore were the top 5 markets, and the 5 fastest-growing markets were Pakistan, Nepal, Kuwait, India and Vietnam.

Senate House, home of the University of London

And there is more to come – as the report covers a period before the branch campuses opened or planned by nine UK universities in India.  Other recent developments include the University of Exeter’s joint institute in Hangzhou with Zhejiang University of Technology.

TNE is evidently a UK export success story and remains an important strategic consideration for universities given the many and varied opportunities to scale it further.

But success is not a straightforward win as there the many failures demonstrate. Research from the Cross-Border Education Research team (C-BERT) reports that almost 1 in 5 branch campuses of universities globally have closed.  Remember the University of Lancashire (then named the University of Central Lancashire) campus in Cyprus or Aberystwyth University in Mauritius?  The universities involved will certainly want to forget those particular misadventures.

Distance and online provision by UK universities has grown but is maturing and is not as fast-growing as the market for in-person provision.  It is also very concentrated in a small number of high volume providers.

For franchised provision, quality control is of paramount importance. Scaling with a focus on quality is essential for the brand reputation of specific institutions and for the sector at large.

Commercially, TNE is not a panacea to counter the problems caused by the UK government’s changes to immigration policy.  Whilst TNE has likely over-taken in-bound student enrolment volumes in the current year, it delivers a much lower average revenue yield per student. The target audience is usually not as affluent. Nevertheless, there are considerable growth opportunities available.  Given the constraints on inbound recruitment, this could well be the era of transnational education as Mark Edwards and Cheryl Yu have claimed.

Mergers, shared services, outsourcing service provision to the private sector

With inbound international revenues at most UK universities declining, one clear strategic response is to create shared services that lower the cost, and improve the efficiency, of international operations.

The merger of the universities of Kent and Greenwich into one “super-university” sets the tone.  Full mergers require significant upheaval, difficult decisions and change management but can bring quick and major benefits to financial performance with reduced senior management and administrative overheads.

One half of a super-university

For some institutions a merger will seem a step too far.   International offices of complementary universities, such as those in the same city or region, could instead pursue shared operations including admissions services, agent management, international marketing and overseas recruitment teams.  Outsourcing different aspects of international service provision to private sector providers is a model which is already well established in many universities and these organisations could also step in to accelerate the provision of shared services.

Some university stakeholders will no doubt object, but the harsh truth is that many institutions are still deploying growth-oriented operating models in a period of sector stagnation or decline, albeit from a record enrolment base.  It would seem remarkable if shared services initiatives did not become more commonplace over the next few years.

Conclusion – is it time to re-think your university?

Perhaps it is the right time to be even more radical.  The current financial pressures faced by the sector is likely to worsen, with 45% of the UK’s universities in deficit in the current academic year.

The university funding model is broken with caps for domestic fees too low, and with previously lucrative inbound international recruitment in retreat from all-time highs. Reaching new audiences through TNE is to be applauded but with the revenue per student substantially lower than for international students studying in the UK, there would need to be very high rates of volume growth to compensate for the inbound declines seen at many higher education providers.

The expansion of universities in the last decade – taking on additional real estate, new campuses, adding to the programme portfolio and staffing levels – has made a shakeout in tougher times inevitable.  Many universities have become bloated, and there is evidence of some chasing volume at the expense of quality – as evidenced in the recent controversy about the dubious promotion by some institutions of Master of Research (MRes) programmes.

Do we need so many universities in the UK?  Have some universities overstepped their remit or attempted to move into areas of programme and service provision that they are not as capable of delivering effectively?  As in any market, if organisations do not take robust action in response to external trends, they will not thrive and some may not even survive.  Clear strategic choices and precise plans for execution are required from the UK’s embattled university leaders.

Footnotes

*This claim of only 31 students seems to be contradicted further down in the article, where it states “Students from Pakistan account for more than half, or 630, of the current intake at the campus”.   As the majority of programmes at the campus are single year full-time postgraduate programmes, the numbers need further scrutiny.

** Of course, these regions are not single homogonous markets but are often talked about as such by university decision makers.

Radio 4’s Start The Week show this week featured Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London.   He has a new collection of essays, On Strategists and Strategy, to be published in March.

Freedman defines strategy as what you are trying to do and how you are going to go about doing it.  The problem, he says, is that any strategy requires engagement with human beings who have their own agendas.  When even the most compelling sounding strategy encounters the real world, things rarely happen as planned. 

On the surface, there are many reasons to be positive about the updated international education strategy*, recently published by the UK government.  The education sector is described as a trade priority, its importance to the economy and to brand UK overseas is emphasised. It is also good news that the government is prepared to declare an aggressive and measurable financial goal of £40bn in annual education exports by 2030.  Unfortunately, it is much harder to be confident in its chances of success.

The government acknowledges it is aiming to achieve significant export growth in the context of major policy changes, driven by the political imperative to gain a firmer control of immigration.

Its last strategy published in March 2019 envisaged 600,000 international students hosted in the UK by 2030, a number which was achieved ten years early.

The approach is now very different:

Indeed, as Lawrence Freedman would anticipate, some of the more tangible aspects of the strategy; beyond the warm words on soft power, trust through international engagement and building national reputation; are likely to struggle when people act in response to it.   The rational actions of three groups of people – international students, university leaders and government decision-makers themselves – will pose particular threats to its success.   In fact, we are already starting to see this play out.

International students

Students have an increasing range of choices for their study destination, and several factors are leading many to question the UK’s value relative to other options.  A shorter post-study visa limit under the Graduate Route and ongoing concerns about graduate outcomes are unfavourable for the perception of the UK’s attractiveness, given its high costs of living and study compared to many alternative destinations.   A new annual levy on international students in England of £925, to be introduced in the 2028/9 academic year will not help the sales pitch.

As UK politicians have become tougher on immigration, previous benefits for international students – such as the those on postgraduate taught programmes being able to bring dependents with them – have been withdrawn.  Certain European study destinations, including Germany, with an increasing number of courses in English, lower tuition fees, and attractive post-study work routes, have seen growth.

Happy to study in Germany instead?

In the UK it is difficult to see how softening demand for in-person study, which makes up the bulk of current international education export revenues, can be sufficiently counteracted by the expansion of other student services.  Whilst growing strongly in volume, and with universities continuing to invest in TNE provision, revenue per student for TNE is considerably lower. 

University leaders

Sustainable recruitment of incoming international students and driving export growth through transnational education (TNE) are two core components of the new international education strategy.  Both have major weaknesses when considered through the lens of flawed attempts by some university leaders to grab market share.

Several university decision-makers have rationally taken advantage of the fact that restrictions to dependent visas are not applicable to master’s by research (MRes) courses.  As reported in Times Higher Education, a tripling of international enrolments on MRes programmes in 2024-25, against the prior year, is led by some lower-ranked universities who are highly exposed to the shifts in student demand for postgraduate taught programmes since the regulations changed: including University of Greater Manchester (increasing from 50 in 23/24 to 915 in 24/25), University of Lancashire (140 to 850), University of Wolverhampton (5 to 770), University of Gloucestershire (5 to 730), and York St. John 90 to 190).

Boom time for the University of Wolverhampton’s MRes student numbers

Whilst in the current rules, and therefore a legitimate approach to international student recruitment, debate rages as to whether the MRes enterprise is damaging to the sector.  Certainly the Home Office thinks so, threatening action against it.   It can be a valid and valuable part of a university’s programme portfolio – indeed Imperial College, UCL, University of Cambridge and University of Oxford all recruit international students to MRes programmes.  But the ramp up in the promotion of MRes at less prestigious institutions by some education agents is a world away from the sustainable approach to international student recruitment defined in the strategy.  MRes has been positioned by some agents as an easy entry option and a workaround to current visa rules, enabling dependents of students on these programmes to secure visas. The actions of some university leaders is likely to bring tighter regulation and scrutiny, and increase costs of recruitment.  The perception is that the sector cannot be trusted to police itself.

Meanwhile, the government’s favoured export growth strategy of TNE has also been called into question with Adam Habib, vice-chancellor of SOAS University of London, calling some universities “deluded” – as also reported by Times Higher Education.   His comments are focused on whether universities with financial difficulties can solve their problems by opening campuses in India, observing that 5 of the British 10 universities currently pursuing this strategy are running deficits: “If they think they’re going to make their money in India in the short term to cross-subsidise, I think they’re very, very deluded about the Indian marketplace.”

Further appetite for TNE investments are likely to be constrained unless these first major ventures are successful.

It is easy to agree with Habib’s criticism of the international education strategy: the government wants to boost UK exports but only if less students are turning up in the country.

Some universities may make a success of TNE.  All MRes programmes are not evil. But given the perilous state of institutional finances, their executive officers are, in  many cases, acting with an air of desperation.  The rapid expansion of cost bases during the boom times have created a deadweight in today’s market.  New revenue streams are needed, but TNE and MRes expansion should come with a health warning.

Government decision-makers

In its new strategy, the government talks at length about it support for the expansion of international education, through bodies such as the Department for Business and Trade and the British Council. At the same time, cuts to these organisations are threatened.   This is a clear case of a strategy being undermined from within.

As David Pilsbury, chief development officer at Oxford International Education Group, is quoted as saying about the higher education sector: “the reality is that we are on our own”.                                     

Conclusion

Success of a strategy relies on alignment of execution, which in turn heavily depends on how effectively those involved in delivering are able to anticipate and adapt to the actions of others.  The government’s new strategy looks great when presented in a glossy manifesto. But it is unlikely to succeed when its key audiences, stakeholders and its own funding approach are pushing in opposing directions.

This begs the question that if the sector is on its own, what should its strategy be to thrive in the future?  A topic I’ll return to in the coming weeks.

• In the United Kingdom, a large number of universities are aiming to drastically cut costs through staff redundancies and cutting lower demand, non-viable courses.

Many UK institutions are suffering from a reduction in international fee revenue.  Study visa applications  – from main applicants –  fell by 14%  in 2024.

• In Canada, the picture is even bleaker.  Study permit approvals for international college students are said to have more than halved, with worse news predicted in 2025, in part due to reputational fallout.
• Australia was hit by a 44% reduction in visa  applications lodged between July and October 2024

In the cases of these three countries, the problems for the sector are driven, to a major extent, by a shift in government policy. This is in response to immigration concerns amongst large swathes of the electorate.

Whereas the UK curbed demand through discontinuing the issue of visas for dependants of international students pursing postgraduate taught courses, Canada and Australia are experimenting with caps, alongside other targeted restrictions.  The expansive international student recruitment stance of prior years has been drastically reversed.  In Australia, the uncertainty is further amplified by political disagreements centred on how the objective to cap new commencements to 270k should be achieved.

Winners and losers?

Amongst the impacted countries, some institutions are still able to shine. Or at least fare relatively better.   

• In the United Kingdom, higher-ranked universities amongst the Russell Group have a double advantage.  They are better insulated from the impact of demand-side shocks, due to better diversification of revenues.   They can also benefit from lower overall demand, by reducing their admissions criteria, enabling students to trade up from universities perceived to be less prestigious, which in turn face the prospect of steeper declines in their numbers in face of declining share in a smaller market.
• It is different in Australia, where the prestigious Group of 8 universities are anxious about the constraints on their new overseas student commencement volumes implied by Ministerial Direction 111.  Having suffered disproportionately last year, a broad base of higher education institutions may now see the benefit of a possible wider distribution of students.

The University of Melbourne, one of the concerned Group of 8 universities in Australia

In Canada, certain student cohorts are less impacted than others.  The recently announced 2025 study permit caps reduce the total allocation by 10% to 437,000, around three quarters of which require the applicant to secure a provincial or territorial attestation letter (PAL or TAL).  This is designed to enable provinces to manage within the caps imposed on them.   Exchange students are now exempt from the PAL requirement, but it is newly extended to international students on master’s and doctoral programmes.  However, with study permits reserved for graduate student under the latest year’s scheme, some industry experts believe that undergraduate numbers could suffer.

Driven by political and public concerns about immigration, and pressures on housing and services, governments in all three destinations are leaning towards maintaining, or further tightening, immigration controls.  Federal elections lie ahead in Canada and Australia this year.  Neither Australia’s Liberal Party, nor Canada’s Conservative Party are in power today. But each of them promotes policies aimed at further curtailing immigration, including controls on international students.

Alternative destinations

Destination-wise, who is benefiting from the macro-level travails of the UK, Canada and Australia?

European Union (EU) countries have a growing appeal to international students. Tuition fees in the bloc tend to be lower than in the United Kingdom. An increasing number of programmes are taught in English, widening their appeal to international students. However, accommodation shortages are still creating supply-side problems, according to ICEF Monitor.

New Zealand is proving a hit, with recent impressive growth rates.  It is an attractive study destination, with positive ratings.   However, its institutional capacity is relatively small.

Looking good: the University of Otago, New Zealand

An opportunity for the USA?

The United States is an international education powerhouse, yet the proportion of overseas students across its thousands of institutions is very small in comparison to other leading destinations. An opportunity exists. Will the United States be an international education winner under Donald Trump?   Before he was re-elected as President, Trump promised an automatic green card for graduating students.

Rather at odds with his overall immigration stance, such a policy would appeal greatly to the technology sector. And obviously it would have a massive appeal to international students considering their choice of destination. Yet as with many things Trump says and does, it is hard to know whether it is a policy, a soundbite, or a passing thought which may be already forgotten. 

Making American international education even greater?

What is clear is that even without such a major move, the United States has a tremendous opportunity to win further share of the international student market. Whether Trump will move to attract or alienate international students this term is, of course, anybody’s guess.  Whilst other countries have set a clear medium-term direction on international student policy, the United States could have a very different stance depending on the week and the mood of its unpredictable President.

Canada

ICEF Monitor reported ApplyBoard’s analysis that new international student numbers could drop by almost 50% in 2024. 

To blame: the implementation of provincial quotas, the introduction of a requirement for prospective students to evidence a savings level of CDN$ 20,635 (over double the previous level), and a tightening of restrictions for those eligible for post study work rights. The number of Indian students approved for study permits in the first six months of 2024 dropped by 50%, with even larger declines from Nepal (76%), Nigeria (70%) and the Philippines (65%). 

Australia

In a move dubbed by a sector representative as “draconian” and “interventionist” new international student enrolments are now capped at 270,000.  An AUD$4bn economic hit and 22,000 job losses are anticipated in 2025.  When the caps per university were published, successful international recruiters the University of Sydney, and the University of Melbourne were amongst the big losers. The quotas imposed on them represent a significant reduction compared to their current enrolment numbers.  These institutions were exposed. They both have an international student mix of around 40%.

United Kingdom

Since the discontinuation of visas for the dependants of international students on taught postgraduate programmes, enrolments have been heavily impacted. Post-1992 universities are disproportionately affected.   A more upbeat tone was set by a recent Guardian article, which reported an improvement in the sentiment of prospective international students towards study in the UK. This is due to the Labour government’s election victory and the support that the new education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, has voiced for the sector.  But there are no planned moves to rescind the dependant ban. With an increase to the threshold for demonstrating sufficient maintenance funds imminent, along with the rise earlier in 2024 to the NHS surcharge, the UK international higher education sector is not expecting a significant upturn in its fortunes in the near future. 

A recent article in the Economist struck a bleak note, stating that ‘the foreigner boom is now turning into a bust.’

Nevertheless, as Michael Salmon reports of Wonkhe, the 17% decrease year-to-date in international student visas applications is perhaps better than many predicted.    When the dust clears after September intake, another important month for visa issuance, we will have a better sense of how UK institutions have fared, and the starting point for enrolment numbers in the new cycle.  The government’s commitment to the Graduate Route (enabling students to search for employment in the UK up to 2 years after graduation), and the headline grabbing measures in Australia and Canada, could still provide some respite for the UK sector.

United States

The United States, with its lower exposure to international students, is arguably going to benefit from the volatility in policy making elsewhere. However, as highlighted by, Jill Blondin, associate vice-provost for global initiatives at Virginia Commonwealth University in a recent online webinar, the high rate of visa refusals and the difficulty of getting visa appointments in key source markets such as India remains a barrier to the level of growth that may otherwise be expected.  

Alternative destinations?

The growth in the choice of destinations for international students, and the fast moving developments in policy, has made an accurate tracking of the global picture of winners and losers more complex.*

New Zealand is receiving positive media coverage currently in key source markets like India for its straightforward visa process, post study work regime and relative value for money.

This view appears to be at odds with IDP’s latest Emerging Futures research which positioned New Zealand at the bottom end of a value for money scale, according to the 11,500 students from 117 countries surveyed. 

Some European destination markets are offering a credible alternative to English speaking countries, driven in part by an increase in the number of courses taught in English.   France is one such example, with steady growth delivered over the last few years.  It plans to welcome 500,000 international students by 2027, compared to 412,000 in the academic year 2022/3. 

Ireland is another winner, following efforts geared towards developing internationalisation at its institutions, although its numbers remain comparatively small. The country hosted 35,000 international students in 2022/3, although these numbers look likely to grow.

Conversely, growth in the Netherlands has slowed following the government’s policy shift in response to the rapid increases in international students that are seen by many to have put pressure on resources and services in its university system.

China crisis?

Despite it still being a huge supplier of international students, a big shift in Chinese market demand has affected many destination markets  in the recent years following the covid-19 pandemic with Australia and the United States particularly hard hit due to additional geopolitical tensions. But domestic economic problems, a reduction in perceptions of the value of an international education for future employment prospects, and a demographic decline have also played a significant part.   It has become relatively attractive for students to stay at home for higher education, with local institutions improving their quality. With Chinese society becoming more inward looking, the rapid growth years for international recruiters appear to be over.    

Domestic economic woes are impacting on Chinese student mobility

Indeed, study destinations across East Asia have risen in popularity in recent years, with an increasing number of internationally mobile students from the region choosing to study closer to home. 

Alongside unfavourable Asian trends, several other key source markets supplying the big English-speaking destinations are suffering their own economic challenges.  Nigeria is the largest international student source market in Sub-Saharan Africa. The weak Nigerian naira (NGN) has depreciated by about 75% against both the British pound sterling (GBP) and the US dollar (USD) since September 2022. 

Future prospects

With such strong headwinds, driven by government policy changes,  the strategic options  available to higher education institutions in Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom are limited.

A few institutions will continue to diversify their risk and set-up directly in the key source markets.

Southampton University, a high ranked UK higher education institution. recently announced it would open a campus in India offering UK degrees to a planned 5,500 new students a year.   It is the first high ranked institution to take advantage of the Indian government’s attempt to attract foreign universities, in order to meet the rising domestic demand which local providers are struggling to meet.    Southampton has the advantage of being able to make a £30mn investment over the next decade in the enterprise.   

From Hampshire to Gurugram

But such a bold move is not in the reach of many institutions.  Seeking cost efficiencies, consolidation of services across institutions or full mergers remain firmly on the menu of options.

Elsewhere, others have resorted to appealing against the tightening policy.

Universities Canada posted on X, “Cuts to international study permits damage Canada’s reputation as a premier education destination, impacting institutions nationwide.  It’s time for this to be the final reduction, allowing Canada and its universities to focus on rebuilding our global brand.”

At the moment this feels like a cry in the dark.   Universities are in a battle for share with each other in a market where growth in student mobility is, at best, constrained.

Government policies on immigration in Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom mean that there are limited prospects, in the short to medium term, for a return of the rising tide that benefited all.  Their higher education institutions must urgently adapt to this new reality.

Footnote

*Additionally, there is a significant lag in publishing enrolment data for many destinations. Jisc, the organisation that publishes higher education statistics in the UK only recently released its 2022/23 data, several months later than originally planned.

The 40 Bills put forward tackle some vital topics under a theme of national renewal.  Bills within categories of economic stability and growth, security, health, energy policy, social cohesion, and opportunity for all make the agenda ambitious and wide-ranging. 

Legislation covering the UK’s many challenges is not deliverable in one Westminster sitting. The government is keen to stress that this is only a starting point.  But for higher education leaders, it is concerning that the sector’s long-running funding crisis does not make the hitlist.  This anxiety was amplified by comments made by the new education secretary Bridget Phillipson.   She told BBC Radio 4 that the government has no plans to raise the tuition fee cap for domestic students, nor to give more public money to universities.  

New education secretary, the same HE funding issues to tackle

Higher education financing is a very tough problem to fix, especially when the government weighs its options against student cost-of-living concerns and the overall state of the public purse.  It cannot be solved quickly.  Yet with some UK universities on the brink of collapse, a further delay to tackling the issue could have severe consequences for the most vulnerable institutions.

Previous governments have kicked the problem down the road.  Such a strategy is not sustainable.  Whilst there are no easy or fast wins, the government must allocate resources and get stuck into the complexity of understanding its choices.  Domestic tuition fees must surely be allowed to rise to levels that at least support the cost of course delivery.

The alternative is to let already stressed the universities go under, and deal with the damage caused by job losses, the impact on local economies, and on the students themselves.  Mergers and course cuts are options already being considered by institutions, according to The Sunday Times.  Many universities do need to get their finances under control.  But if market and inflationary forces impact on the cost side of the equation, then a rational market response to fair pricing and revenue must also be permitted.

With home tuition fees and an increase in state funding off limits for the foreseeable future, international students and their uncapped fees, are likely to be one of the only revenue generating answers in the short term.  Phillipson, back on BBC Radio 4 for the Today programme, recently underlined the government’s support for retaining the Graduate Route.

This will be welcome news for universities and under pressure international offices.  With other key English speaking study destinations, notably Canada and Australia, also facing challenges with recently introduced restrictions to international student flows, the UK should benefit through a relatively benign approach to the topic from the new government.  Prospective students will see that the UK is still open for post-study work opportunities which were considered at high risk under the previous Conservative regime, bringing uncertainty.

However welcome, the reinforcement of a policy already in place does not signal a return to the record levels of international student volumes seen prior to the curtailing of visas for the dependants of students on postgraduate taught courses, which came into effect in January 2024.

International student numbers could see an imminent upturn, but the deeper funding crisis within the higher education sector is a much tougher problem in need of thorough analysis, and the development of detailed root and branch solutions.

‘There is an asymmetry in public life. If you err on the side of optimism, it can dog you forever. Ask Francis Fukuyama. Erring the other way incurs much less cost. Ask . . . well, whom? Who is the reference point for incorrect pessimism? If a name doesn’t occur, it’s because we tend to let these things go.’

The International Education was reminded of Ganesh’s words this week, when the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) returned with its Rapid review of the Graduate route,  commissioned by the UK Home Secretary, James Cleverley.  Many in the higher education sector, still reeling from the ban on dependant visas which has led to a sharp decline in recruitment for taught postgraduate programmes from key source markets, expected the worst.   Predictions focused on how far the MAC would go in recommending restrictions to the Graduate route, which enables international students to seek work in the UK for up to 2 years after the successful completion of a university degree.   The best to be hoped for, some believed, was that the post study work visa would not be scrapped altogether. 

An age of uncertainty

These fears were not without foundation.  The MAC had previously expressed concerns about the post study work visa, before its reintroduction by Boris Johnson’s government in 2019, ‘due to concerns that it would lead to an increase in low-wage migration and universities marketing themselves on post-study employment potential rather than educational quality.’

The evidence that the MAC highlighted back in 2018 was that the earnings of international graduates were substantially lower than those of domestic graduates, one year after study.  As recently as December 2023,  the MAC annual report stated:

‘Our concern that the graduate visa would incentivise demand for short Master’s degrees based on the temporary right to work in the UK, rather than primarily on the value of qualification, may well be borne out in the trends that we have observed. As we have already shown, the rise in student numbers is almost entirely focused on taught Master’s degrees, and the growth has been fastest in less selective and lower cost universities.’

But when the MAC’s rapid review was released, it was unequivocal in its core finding and recommendation:

‘The Graduate route has broadly achieved, and continues to achieve, the objectives set by this government. We therefore recommend that the route remains in place in its current form.

We found no evidence of any significant abuse of the Graduate route. By abuse we mean deliberate non- compliance with immigration rules.’

This did not stop the right wing of the UK’s governing Conservative Party questioning the MAC’s findings.  Robert Jenrick and Neil O’Brien criticised the government for setting the wrong parameters for the review.   Jenrick wrote on X ‘If you order white paint, you get a whitewash.’

Robert Jenrick: preparing for the Tories’ era in the political wilderness

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is reported to want to push ahead with restrictions to the Graduate route.   International students remain part of the net migration figures which his government has pledged to reduce, despite the majority of them returning to their home countries after graduation. Instead of euphoria, or even mild relief, the realisation that the MAC review may simply be ignored, brought the pessimists back to the fore.  After all, this is a government set on pursuing its bizarre and ill-informed policy to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for the sake of looking tough on immigration. What hope for a common sense approach to international education?

Barring an unprecedented turnaround, it is a government that will not even be in power by February next year.   Indeed, at least 64 of its MPs will resign their seats at the next election, and many of its ministers are reported to be looking for new jobs, in anticipation of a rout.   

Yet there are some reasons for optimism.  The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, gave some glimmers of hope when he said that the government will “continue to support sustainable increases in international students coming to the UK.”  At the same time, he defended the ban on dependants.

Big business has also been quick off the mark to support the MAC’s views, with the leaders of Anglo American, Rio Tinto and Siemens writing to the prime minister to urge him not to make any changes to the Graduate route, citing the threats to the UK’s competitive edge, and the further weakening of finances of the university sector, damaging its resources for research and engagement with industry.

The UK is not the only key destination country whose international higher education sector is facing profound changes to its operating environment.  This month, Australia has published a draft International Education and Skills Strategic Framework, placing an emphasis on quality, integrity, and sustainable growth.  A bill has been put forward to enable the government to put ‘soft caps’ on inbound international student flows by limiting numbers at individual institutions.  Canada  has previously implemented a cap in numbers, in order to achieve net zero growth, driven by a lower rate of approval for study permit applications.

On behalf of a beleaguered UK higher education sector, Vivienne Stern, Chief Executive of Universities UK, called for stability in policy.    In Australia and Canada, there are at least clear directions being pursued, despite the challenges faced by those countries’ institutions in the short term.

The emphasis of the MAC on high quality enrolment practices, and an improved governance  of universities’ relationships with agents to achieve them, is to be welcomed.  But when a government simultaneously pursues a goal of increasing international student numbers, and associated export revenues, whilst making sudden and dramatic changes to stymie that growth, there are significant questions to be asked about its competence.  Is this a flagship sector to be proud of, or one to damage at the whim of ministers desperately fighting to cling on to power, increasingly out-of-touch with reality, in the last days of a tired government?

Combined with a complete lack of vision for how one of the UK’s most important national assets should be financed, there are thousands of people across the higher education sector who are highly optimistic about how the results of the  next general election will play out. Less certain is what the Labour Party’s future plans are for universities, and the level of international student flows that they will deem to be acceptable.

Universities in the United Kingdom are under pressure from falling international student numbers. Data from Enroly, an admissions services platform widely adopted by UK HEIs, indicated that overseas enrolments have fallen by around one third in the January 2024 intake compared to January 2023.

The sharp fall was driven by a big drop in postgraduate numbers from India and Nigeria. Across all levels of degree, the number of Confirmation of Acceptance of Studies – the formal document issued by universities to enable students to apply for a study visa – fell year-on-year by 33% from India and by 70% from Nigeria. A significant currency devaluation also had a role to play in the decline in Nigerian numbers, but new restrictions on dependants of taught postgraduate students joining them for the period of their programmes is the main factor.

The chart (labelled Figure 4) below shows how the number and proportion of study visas granted to dependants had risen strongly until June 2023, with Nigeria and India being the source markets with the largest volumes. Changes to the rules for granting visas to dependants of students were announced in May 2023, and took effect in January 2024.

Source: Home Office, Why to people come to the UK? To study (Updated 14th November 2023)

UK universities had previously enjoyed very strong growth in the past few years from both India and Nigeria, as seen on the chart (lablled Figure 3) below. A change in policy has impacted the ability of many dependants of international students to secure a visa to accompany them for the period of their studies. Universities fear that possible restrictions to post-study work visas, known as the Graduate Route, currently being considered by the Migration Advisory Council (MAC), will further erode their pulling power. Such a major change would further impact student flows from several key source markets. However, students from India, represented 44% of users of post-study visas in 2023, with just over 50,000 of them granted leave to remain via the Graduate Route.

Source: Home Office, Why to people come to the UK? To study (Updated 14th November 2023)

Auspicious opportunities

With numbers taking a downward turn from India and Nigeria, China will again come to the forefront of focus for many of the UK’s universities.

In her insightful 2023 book, The New China Playbook, Beyond Socialism and Capitalism, Keyu Jin writes that ‘according to the Chinese Ministry of Education, of the five million students who completed their studies abroad between 2000 and 2019, around 86 per cent returned to China.’ Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese leader who did so much to shape the country’s rapid development in the late 1970s and 1980s, introduced policies that allowed Chinese youth to travel overseas for higher education. In doing so he rightly envisaged that many of them would stay abroad for some time, writes Jin. He held the long view that this would still be a positive outcome for China’s economic development. Nowadays, the fact that so many of its students return to their home country, makes China a safe bet for UK policy makers concerned about study visas being a backdoor route to immigration.

Although now the second largest source market, China’s importance to UK universities is not in doubt. But many universities have struggled to recover their previous volumes after the Covid pandemic, despite the initial bounce after the extended period of lockdowns in China ended. Other universities are keen to manage the risk, created by over-exposure to China, that impacted them during the Covid years.

In the Chinese zodiac, the dragon year brings ‘auspicious opportunities and exciting advancements for all.’ The dragon ‘is considered a celestial and divine creature, with the ability to control natural elements such as wind and water.’ Can UK universities capitalise on the dragon year’s good fortune? And to what extent can they influence student flows from China anyway?

A Chinese new year dragon, Royal Albert Dock, Liverpool, February 2024

A two tier system

Times Higher Education recently published a short news story under a headline, quoting consultant Vincenzo Raimo, proclaiming that international student recruitment from China is ‘getting harder’. The article itself went on to describe a small 3% increase in applications via UCAS by the January deadline for the 2024-25 academic year. According to Mark Corver of dataHE, the market has bifurcated into a two tier system, with recruitment success in China highly reliant on a university’s research profile and ranking. Universities outside the Russell Group of UK elite universities, especially those lower down in the league tables, were often previously able to drive good numbers from China. Now they are finding the market much tougher than they did pre-pandemic.

Conversely, many universities at the top table will have no problem in achieving high volumes, but their goal is to avoid the financial risk that surfaced in the pandemic due to a ‘super-dependency’ on China. Building on the Times Higher Eduction article, and quoting the comments in it from Raimo and Corver, there follows a summary of the dynamics at play for UK universities competing in the China student recruitment landscape, with additional analysis and commentary.

That Chinese students, and their parents, focus on high ranking universities is not a new phenomenon. Current data for international student flows to specific universities in the UK is woefully lagged. HESA, the higher education statistics agency, part of Jisc, proclaim themselves as the data experts for the UK sector. The latest data published for overseas student volumes relates to the 2021-22 academic year. Under normal circumstances, the 2022-23 data would be published by now, but even that would not be that useful in understanding current trends.

An analysis of this data illustrates the concentration of students from mainland China. There were almost 528,000 full-time non-European Union international students enrolled in UK higher education institutions supplying data to HESA in 2021-22, out of a total enrolment of 2.27 million. 494,350 non-EU international students of the 528,000 were enrolled at one of the 121 universities ranked by the Guardian newspaper in its 2021 UK best universities league table (Oxford was ranked number 1, Bedfordshire at number 121). Of the 494,000, the number from mainland China was 143,545 or 29% of the total.

The chart below shows a basic overview of Chinese full-time students enrolled by a university’s position in the 2021 Guardian league table. The goodness-of-fit line has an R-squared of 0.255 meaning that 25% of the variance in student volumes are explained by league position* (see footnote).

A basic analysis, showing a moderate correlation: more work is needed over multiple years and rankings

Of the 24 universities which are members of the elite Russell Group, only five had a percentage of full-time students from mainland China, compared to their total full-time non-EU international 2021-22 enrolments, of less than 40%: the University of Oxford (25%), the University of Cambridge (30%), Queen Mary, University of London (32%), London School of Economics and Political Science (32%), and the University of Exeter (33%). Four had a proportion of over 60%, with the University of Southampton weighing in at 72%. Strikingly, 105,000 full-time students from China attended a Russell Group university, representing 51% of the full-time non-EU international total students enrolled in the 24 member institutions. 10,635 from China attended University College London alone. If, as Corver suggests, there continues to be an increasing focus on select universities, it will be interesting to see the numbers in the 2023-2024 data, whenever HESA is able to publish it.

Some lower-ranked, post-1992, and non-research led universities, did have good numbers of full-time Chinese students in 2021-22. University of Westminster (ranked 117 in the Guardian’s 2021 UK university league table), and De Montfort University (119) registered 955 and 1,120 respectively. Coventry University recorded 2,425 , although also had the benefit of being upwardly mobile in the rankings (26). Specialist provider, the University of Arts London registered 5,530, 57% of its international non-EU total, underlining the popularity of art and design courses in China.

Articulation and progression agreements with partner universities are credited for the success of universities like Westminster and De Montfort – both have long-standing and active initiatives in China, demonstrating the possibilities of recruiting students to their similarly low-ranked peers. Whilst it is true that most post-1992 universities do not have anywhere near this level of success in China, it appears to be the case that Westminster and De Montfort continue to see it as a productive source market, despite their league position. It is possible for such universities to do well in China, if a targeted long-term strategy is in place and well-executed.

There is intense competition for international students amongst proactive institutions across an increasing number of destination countries, whether situated in the traditional international education powerhouses of the United States, Canada, Australia and the UK, or in emerging destinations in Europe, Asia and elsewhere. The UK government, having promoted growth in international student numbers, is now fixated on cutting net migration numbers, in which they bizarrely count students intending to be in the UK for only the duration of their degree programmes, before returning home.

In a December 2023 UCAS published a report seeking to understand the motivations and views of Chinese undergraduate students in the UK entitled Global Insights: What are the experiences of Chinese students in the UK? UCAS projects a growth to 50,000 undergraduate applicants from China by 2030, a significant increase from the 33,195 in 2023, even whilst noting that ‘some commentators are suggesting that the UK may be close to ‘peak China.’

One section of the report focuses on the differences in the experiences of Chinese undergraduate students in the UK, against their expectations. It finds that ‘72% find their living expenses to be higher than expected’. Despite this, 91% are extremely likely or likely to recommend the UK as a study destination, with the quality of the course meeting or exceeding expectations in 92% of cases. Indeed, 73% are considering to stay in the UK after completing an undergraduate programme. These findings shine a very positive light on the attractiveness of the UK, in the face of heightened competition from other destinations.

A shortage of graduate employment opportunities in China, following economic challenges and government legislation to constrain the financial, gaming, and technology sectors, means that Chinese students are putting even more emphasis on the job prospects that a university degree can lead to. The report advocates greater support for international students on their employability, and the measurement of graduate outcomes. The value of graduating from a high-ranked university is again emphasised, with Shanghai now offering a hukou – a hard to obtain household registration document necessary for people hailing from elsewhere in China to live and work in the metropolis – to those who have studied in a world top 100 institution.

Overall, the report points to a positive outlook for China as a future source of growth in international student numbers. Geopolitical tensions are always a looming threat to be wary of, although the probability and impact is hard to anticipate or predict. Whilst economic growth in China remains sluggish, driven in part by the crisis in the property market, a further rise in the Chinese middle class, and the ongoing attractiveness of an overseas education, is predicted to transcend any short-term volatility in student numbers.

President Xi Jinping: searching for economic recovery

Conclusion

With pressure on numbers from India and Nigeria, UK universities are once again turning their attention to China as a source of growth for international students. Growth prospects remain strong over the medium and long term. However, it is the high-ranked universities that continue to hold a major advantage in the market share battle.

The notable past successes of a handful of post-1992 universities, demonstrate that a clear-headed strategy, and a focus on execution, can deliver good returns for higher education institutions outside the elite Russell Group. Yet it is clear that the lower-ranked universities enjoying success today have had to work hard over a considerable period of time to achieve it. When recruiting students from China, there are no easy solutions. The macroeconomic and geopolticial context may have altered, but the UK’s international education sector has not yet reached ‘peak China’.

*Footnote: Further analysis is needed as the Guardian annual league table is only one method of ranking universities, and not the most commonly referenced one in China. Indeed in the 2021 Guardian table, 8 of the elite Russell Group universities were actually ranked outside the top 25.

On 11^th January, the University of York – a high-ranked Russell Group institution in the UK – was reported by the Financial Times to have lowered its entry requirements for international students for some programmes, including computer science and medicine.  Denied by the university as being a policy decision, it was presented instead as a flexible admissions approach for students who just miss their grade.

University of York

For many in the sector, this is the tip of a very large iceberg. One which UK higher education is struggling to navigate around.  As the FT put it: ‘The move by University of York follows warnings from cash-strapped higher education leaders about a downturn in the number of more lucrative international students coming to the study in the UK.’

The winter of our discontent

Coventry University and Sheffield Hallam University headline the mid-ranked UK universities reported to be in trouble.  Both institutions are under threat of breaching their banking covenants, according to Times Higher Education.  In December, Coventry University announced it would make £100m of cuts over the next two years.  At Sheffield Hallam University, 1,700 academic staff were invited to apply for a voluntary severance scheme.   

Tough times in the steel city

Government immigration policy, restricting visas for dependants of international students, and raising the minimum salary level at which skilled workers can obtain a visa, have impacted on the attractiveness of the UK as an international study destination. This is a significant root cause of the hit on the finances of many universities.  Funding for teaching domestic students has fallen significantly in England, with undergraduate annual tuition fees capped at £9,250 since 2017, in an environment of rising inflation rates.   Higher international student fees, which are not controlled, have underpinned the finances of many universities. Coventry University has previously been very successful in its international activities. In the academic year 2021/22, the last period for which data is currently published by the Higher Education Statistics Agency, Coventry enrolled 15,565 non-UK students, the 6^th highest total. 

Student immigration under pressure

Institutions in Australia, Canada, and the United States are facing international education market challenges of their own.

As highlighted by Alan Preece in his View from a Bridge blog, Canada’s growth in international student numbers has been stellar, with a doubling of study permit holders to over 800,000 from 2016 to 2022.  Concerns about the quality of applications, unregulated agents, diversity, the capacity of the sector to deliver good quality accommodation and services to international students, and weakening graduate outcomes, tarnish the success story.

Nick Cuthbert writes in the PIE News: ‘Immigration minister Marc Miller has gone as far as comparing the education system in Canada to a “puppy mill” with the student visa department being overloaded with poor quality applications.’

The other York University – in Toronto. No sign of any puppies.

The number of study permit approvals is already being given greater scrutiny by the national Immigration Department.    The Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will introduce a new Trusted Institution framework this year, aimed at further addressing the significant service and quality problems at some of the country’s institutions.

Recruitment from India is already impacted heavily, with study permits declining by over 40% since July 2022, according to MSM Reporter, following rising student dissatisfaction and geopolitical tensions between Quebec and New Delhi.

The Australian government is also attempting to tighten up on student and graduate visas, within a new Migration Strategy.  A new Genuine Student Test is being introduced, to mitigate the rising numbers of students perceived to be seeking work rather than study.  The strategy document also commits to better regulation of education agents to tackle the problem of visa misuse. 

International student numbers in Australia have been booming, with a 31% increase over the prior year to 746,080 for the January-September 2023 period.  

It is election year in the United States. The return of Donald Trump as president is quoted at 5/4 by Betfair Sportsbook, a UK bookmaker, denoting a 44.44% probability of success.  The United States is remains very strongly positioned in the world of international education, particularly in STEM disciplines.  But last time he was president, Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric had a statistically significant impact on driving a proportion of international students to competing destinations.

As Preece points out, a rise international proactivity amongst United States institutions, combined with positive government support, has put the sector in a very strong position.  Higher education institutions in the United States will be watching the presidential election results from behind their couches.

Against this backdrop, 2024 is likely to be a year of challenges for international student recruiters in the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and the United States.  Granted, there may not be too many positives for institutions in the United States if Trump is victorious. Nor will universities in the United Kingdom be dancing in the streets if the ruling Conservative Party clings to power for another year before a general election is held, given its confusing and kneejerk shaping of immigration policy and its internal (and infernal) civil war.

All businesses, including higher education providers, prefer certainty.  Being beholden to the whims of politicians, in place of long-term vision and strategy, is frustrating for all actors in international education.  Despite this, there are substantial positive outcomes that may well emerge from the current gloom in the medium term.  Even if it does not feel like that at the moment.

Reasons to be cheerful

In the absence of increased government support or subsidies, consolidation and collaboration, and a drive for quality will become mission critical objectives for internationally-oriented higher education institutions in the four main English-language speaking destinations.  The goals of this should be:

• Improved services to international students, and prospective international students
• Engagement with and support for the career progress of international graduates
• Ability to sustain higher international fees (or lower discount rates from existing fees) due to the increased value of the proposition to students at all stages of the student journey

1. Consolidation and collaboration

This is not necessarily simply to suggest full mergers of public higher education institutions, although that could be a desirable outcome in some cases, in order to save back office costs and relieve financial pressures (see also footnote*).

Indeed, a mega merger – the largest in Australia higher education history – between University of South Australia and University of Adelaide has recently received government approval in Australia, leading to the creation of Adelaide University.  Driven by the pursuit of financial stability, and public funding considerations, the merger ‘will advance South Australia as a premier destination for international students, with $30 million to be invested in the recruitment of international students and an extra 6,000 international students projected by 2034’, as reported on the Insider Guides website. 

One half of a new mega university

An article from McKinsey & Company, a consultancy, last summer outlined the options for alliances for US higher education institutions (HEIs) , as an alternative to full mergers or acquisitions.  (The frequency of mergers and acquisitions was also found to be accelerating).    The motivation for greater collaboration, or formal integration, is declining domestic enrolments, an imminent demographic drop in high school leavers, and an inflationary cost base.

Instead of a full merger, universities and colleges should look at opportunities to:

• Share back office operations and administrative services with one or more other HEIs,  including international recruitment, admissions and enrolment services.  This would work best between HEIs in the same city, or between institutions with a similar profile of target markets and audiences.
• Formally collaborate on overseas promotion.  Solutions could range from pooling resources and effort for overseas recruitment travel and in-market activities, to joint ventures for the services provided by overseas recruitment offices and teams. 
• Alliances or joint ventures focused on transnational education opportunities, such as overseas campuses or strategic partnerships with universities in different countries of shared interest

2. Drive for quality in individual or allied institutions

Higher Education institutions like to talk about quality. But when it comes to the execution of an approach and processes to deliver international recruitment, student experience, and graduate outcomes, many are sadly lacking. To address this, HEIs should:

• Rationalise the number of education agents that each institution works with. This should improve both the quality and efficiency of recruitment. At the moment, some HEIs have agent lists running to hundreds of different agency partners.  As well as being hugely inefficient, and increasing acquisition costs, dealing with numerous recruitment partners – through a fragmented agent network – is risky from a compliance perspective.  One of the lessons from the rapid expansion of international students numbers in recent years is that some agents provide weak processes for attracting, engaging with, and receiving applications from their students.  Relationships with education agents should be managed much more effectively by education providers than they commonly are.
• Deploy tech-enabled enrolment processes, whether delivered via shared services between institutions or on an individual institution basis, can improve services to prospective students .  Too many universities still rely heavily on manual admissions decisions, some of which can take weeks to make, prompting international students to seek alternative options.  Developments in artificial intelligence are likely to revolutionise customer service and operational efficiency.
• Pursue best practices in delivering a great international student experience is an imperative for HEIs.  Not least, the preparation of students for finding job and career opportunities beyond graduation is a critical driver for how international students value their overseas university experience.  Bringing a focus to this aspect of the journey, and rigorously tracking international graduate outcomes so that they can be evidenced, enhances the reputation not just of the institution but of the sector overall.  It also enables inputs to be improved, amplifying value for future students.

Conclusion

Simply pushing up fees, or reducing discounts (bursaries and scholarships) for international students, is not always feasible as a way to improve revenue on lower enrolment volumes.  Whilst some institutions have an opportunity to manage pricing much better than they do today, many of them do not have the market power to increase prices. Nor will that be possible without tangible improvements to the value they offer to their customers.

However, HEIs can focus on both efficiency and cost savings in the acquisition of international students, and use some of the upside gained to invest in services and student experience.  This will create ongoing benefits for all parties. Institutions that are successful should be able to win volume market share, with a higher quality of revenue. International students will receive a much better return on their considerable investments.  Governments will see that the industry is trying hard to get its house in order on issues of quality and compliance. They may even decide to offer their universities greater support.

*Footnote

Matt Robb, Partner at Deloitte, wrote on his personal X account that, aside for a group of UK higher education institutions that do not have a ‘viable catchment & will never be financially strong enough to underpin high quality provision for a wide range of subjects…’ [Robb recommends that these ones should return to being colleges ‘much lower cost structure, or become someone else’s branch campus (but viability issues) or simply close.’].

‘Much of the remainder needs to consolidate. Rule of thumb: half the back office costs of the smaller institution can be saved. More if digital and tech properly applied but this is typically £10s of millions and won’t happen in a merger timescale.  Apply that rule to 2x £300M HEIs and the cost savings available through a merger are ~£75M. Discount by half for execution risk and you’re talking £25-£50M saving / surplus. There is no other solution for HEIs that looks like this.’

It has been a torrid few weeks for UK higher education institutions, and especially for those involved in international activities.  On November 23^rd, the Office for National Statistics estimated that net migration in the calendar year of 2022 had reached 745,000, up from its previous figure of 606,000.  Its further estimate that this has slowed to (a less widely reported) 672,000 for the 12 months to June 2023 did not bring any comfort. Then on 4^th December, the government announced measures aimed at reducing immigration by 300,000.  This included a significant increase to the minimum salary level at which skilled workers can obtain a visa. Hardly helpful to HEIs. But it did not, for the timebeing anyway, incorporate any further direct changes to rules relating to visas issued under the study route. 

The government had previously legislated to prevent dependants of international students on taught graduate courses from accompanying them to the UK, effective from January 2024.  This announcement, in the summer, is widely credited with creating a peak in applications in the Autumn 2023 intake (although conversion outcomes are reported to have been mixed), before the rule change, then causing a major slowdown in projected international enrolments at post-1992 universities for 2024 intakes.

Crossfire hurricane

In December, the Tories have been beset by more factional infighting, the resignation of immigration minister Robert Jenrick (he was replaced by two ministers: with respective briefs for legal and illegal immigration) and heated arguments, led by the prime minister, Rishi Sunak (pictured below), about whether the UK can legally send asylum seekers to be processed in Rwanda.   If only the same energy and resources had been dedicated to processing the 175,000-strong backlog of asylum seekers reported by the Home Office in August.

This hurricane of incompetence on a grand scale, a political party at war with itself, and the inevitable lack of certainty about the real impact of its latest measures, brings us to a situation where the government is actively looking for even more ways to bring down the net migration numbers.  745,000 less 300,000 (if that goal is fulfilled) still leaves at least 445,000 reasons that the government may feel the need to act to reduce immigration faster.  In the process of desperately trying to appeal to its own backbenchers in the Houses of Parliament, and to an electorate which the evidence suggests is actually becoming less concerned about the topic, UK higher education is likely to be caught in the crossfire.

Migration Advisory Committee report

Enter the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) which has just published its annual report, and has also been asked to review the graduate visa route that currently enables international scholars, granted a student visa, to stay in the UK for a further 2 years after completing their degree.  This will get university Vice Chancellors, and the wider UK international education industry, even more nervous about the future financial outlook.   Many are already at crisis point: Coventry University reported this week that it will make close to £100m of cuts to expenditure over the next two years, after its income is projected to miss budget by £85m in the year to July 2024.

Rising like a phoenix from the flames?

The MAC annual report outlines the arguments that will play out in the coming weeks.  The role of the MAC is to advise the government on policy, not to decide it. But the report contains some clear pointers to the debate to come.

1. Yes, the government did have an explicit policy to increase international student numbers to 600,000 by 2030, achieving its goal a decade early.  With universities losing money on undergraduate domestic students, and with fees frozen at a time of high inflation, international student revenues have helped keep many higher education institutions afloat, as well as being a major export earner for the UK economy as a whole.
2. There have been some unintended consequences of this success, with the rise of those on dependant visas, driven by Nigeria and India which accounted for 73% of dependants in 2022.  This is a problem for the positive story of inbound student arrivals, as dependants do not pay any fees to universities and also, arguably, place extra demand on housing stock and public services.  Hence the dependant restrictions about to be implemented.
3. The MAC believes that the concerns it expressed in its 2018 annual report, that ‘a post-study work regime could become a pre-work study regime’ is supported by the latest data. The committee’s view is that the universities are not competing on the quality of their programmes, but have been able to market themselves as a cost-effective way of entering the UK to work. The 2023 annual report states that: ‘the rise in student numbers is almost entirely focused on taught Master’s degrees, and the growth has been fastest in less selective and lower cost universities. The rise in the share of dependants is also consistent with this. Since both the applicant and an adult dependant can work both during the original study period (students can work up to 20 hours per week during term and full-time outside term), and for 2 years on the graduate visa, the cost-benefit of enrolling in a degree has changed substantially.’
4. And when such international graduates enter work, many are doing so on very low salaries. A high proportion of them earn less than the current £26,200 minimum (before its increase to £38,700) of the skilled worker route during their first full year after graduation.  The report states that ‘the lower quartile of non-EU Master’s students experience minimal wage progression up to 5 years after graduation, suggesting they are more likely to remain in low-skilled jobs post-study.’ 

These findings do not build a credible case that the graduate visa route is predicated on encouraging the employment of skilled workers who add value to the UK economy.  Rather the opposite.  

Such opinions make it likely that a future policy recommendation could introduce a threshold minimum salary level to enable qualification for the graduate visa route, a decision that would disproportionately impact the finances of post-1992 universities.

Much of the language used by the Migration Advisory Committee, seems to infer a strong bias towards research-intensive universities and neglects the contribution that modern universities can bring to their local communities, and local employers, for which they need the fee income provided by international students.  Indeed, all five committee members are academics in elite Russell Group universities.

Welcoming international students to the UK

The importance of keeping the graduate route intact

The other side of the argument is put forcibly by former universities minister, Jo Johnson in a recent opinion piece in the Financial Times.  He writes that ‘any move now to axe or make the graduate route less attractive would risk tipping many universities into deficit, reduce the country’s soft power and hit an export sector that contributes more than £41bn a year to the economy’ and that ‘the post-study work offer is table stakes for the UK’s ability to attract globally mobile students at a time of intense competition from the US, Canada, Australia and other, non-anglophone markets.’

He argues that any review of the graduate route should focus on addressing abuses of the current system, rather than on making fundamental changes to the policy itself.  Johnson advocates application fees, higher tuition deposits, and the requirement to deposit the mandatory minimum maintenance funds in an interest-bearing escrow account as three possible ways for the sector to ensure that it gains political backing for the graduate route to continue.

Survival of the fittest

Aside from lobbying the government about the impact on university finances, and adopting such measures that reassure politicians that universities have got their quality control in order, how else can HEIs respond to an overall reduction in demand from international source markets?  In early 2024, many will be nursing severe hangovers caused by institutional complacency as international student numbers rose and made everyone look good.  Faced with the new realities, an intensive fitness regime for the new year is prescribed.

1. Measure graduate outcomes, leverage industry networks, engage with alumni

Institutions that claim to be focused on the career outcomes of their graduates need to walk the talk. A starting point is to track, and publish data on, the career progression of international alumni.  On the back of insights over time, institutions will be able to invest smartly in delivering impactful outcomes through relevant course content, and in making connections to prospective employers. Some universities seem to view the end of a differentiated international student journey as enrolment and the receipt of tuition fees, instead of tailoring their offer to the needs of international students throughout, and beyond, the degree programme.

2. Work with credible recruiters and agents, focusing on commercial performance and compliance

The effectiveness and capabilities of many international recruitment and marketing teams, and the management of their agent networks, is still not good enough compared to what the UK industry needs to compete sustainably with alternative destinations.  It is easy to do well in rising markets, now we will see how strong these international teams really are.    Identifying, attracting, developing, and retaining commercially-minded team members, and performance managing a network of education agents with sufficient global or regional reach is essential to future success.  Alongside this, recruiters must also pay close attention to admissions and compliance processes, ensuring that students entering the institution are legitimate and motivated to complete the course. There should not be any contradiction between the targeting of commercial outcomes and ensuring that stakeholders, including the government and public, have confidence in the enterprise.

3. Managing the pipeline of prospective students to improve efficiency and conversion outcomes, integrating technology solutions to improve enrolment services and speed up response times

Many university admissions processes are still reliant on manual processes, and the reactivity and response times of individual team members.  Service levels vary enormously between institutions, and are often unacceptably slow. Financial success in coming years will largely depend on how well operational processes are managed, and innovation through the adoption of new technologies, including artificial intelligence, to improve admission decision-making and the customer experience, in order to gain an edge.  Universities should consider collaborating with private sector education and service providers more closely on many aspects of their enrolment process for international students. The universities that become good at this, will win market share in a time of likely turmoil for the sector.

Conclusion

The UK government should pursue policies that keep the financial prosperity of universities, and the UK’s international education sector, at the forefront of their priorities.  Nevertheless, universities have a key role to play in reassuring the public and policy makers, that they will not tolerate any abuses in the current visa system.

Quality control measures for the recruitment and admissions process, of the type recommended by Jo Johnson, may well play a part.  Also important is a full understanding of graduate outcomes, and a focus on improving them. Enhanced commercial and operational capabilities are essential to the delivery of both a competitive edge and of quality assurance.

Commercial, compliance, academic and student outcomes are closely aligned imperatives. University management teams need to realise this and develop their teams with a long-term plan, and with an investment approach that is fully coherent, and orientated towards international student success, across all parts of the institution. How each university approaches the challenge ahead will determine the sector’s winners and losers in 2024 and beyond.

The latest release, this November, of the Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange was a much-anticipated event for United States higher education watchers.  The range of free of charge data, infographics and factsheets is impressive and well presented.  More importantly, it gives a state of the nation snapshot for international recruiters.

The headline from the 2022/23 data is a 12% increase in the total number of enrolled international students compared to the previous academic year, with 858,395 of them studying in the United States, or online from abroad, through American higher education institutions. This total includes some students on non-degree programmes but excludes those on Optical Practical Training – the pre-graduation and post-graduation work placements which are an attractive opportunity for overseas students, and of considerable value to American businesses – to ensure a fair comparison with international student numbers in other study destinations, as prescribed by Alan Preece.

Whilst the latest full census represents a bounce-back from the Covid period, it is only the 5^th highest number on record. Admittedly, 2022/3 is not too far behind the peak years of 2015/16 to 2018/19 (the high point was actually 2016/17, achieved before Donald Trump became the 45th. United States president), and is slightly ahead of the 2019/20 pre-Covid benchmark.  New international student enrolment numbers from 2022/3 indicate positive momentum, with the level of 298,523, close to the historical record of just over 300,000 in 2015/6. 

But as Preece also points out in his blog, The Fall 2023 Snapshot on International Student Enrollment (which surveys a subset of the full Open Doors constituency a year before the deeper poll for 2023/4 is conducted) indicates only a 3% growth in total undergraduate students and an even skinnier 2% increase in new students overall.

So does anything in the 2022/3 data indicate that a new golden era of growth in the American international higher education sector is likely to transpire over the next decade?

Four drivers of the 2022/3 United States enrolment growth

1. Graduate boom time

Whilst new undergraduate numbers were lower in 2022/3 than every other year in the previous ten, apart from the pandemic-hit years of 2020/21 and 2021/22, graduate level numbers were thriving with 168,920 new students enrolled, 47% above the 10-year average. The Fall 2023 Snapshot indicates a 7% increase on the prior year and notes that graduate-level demand has also fuelled an OPT increase of 17% in Fall 2023 because many of the graduate students ‘are opting to gain work experience in the United States.’

2. STEM subjects, especially tech, lead the way

Over half of the overall 12% enrolment increase was driven by science, technology, engineering and medicine (STEM) subjects, with two-thirds of the STEM rise explained by Computer and Information Sciences – for which total international enrolments grew by 25% to 196,727.  STEM subjects dominated the choices of students from the two biggest source markets of China, with 51.3%, and of India – a noteworthy 76.2% of Indian international students at American institutions were pursuing a STEM field of study in 2022/3.

3. India close to overtaking China in the number one spot

The overall growth in enrolments from India was up 35% to 268,923. China remained the largest single source market but showed a slight decline against the prior year to 289,526. In the Fall 2023 Snapshot, 36% of institutions observed growth in new Chinese students, an increase from 29% in Fall 2022, but again hinting at the ongoing challenges faced by recruiters hoping to drive higher numbers from China.

4. Leading international recruiters are on the rise again

New York University, Northeastern University, Columbia University, Arizona State University, and University of Southern California remain the top 5 international recruiters and all posted double digit growth, aside from the latter which came in at just under 9.8% growth.  Between them, these top 5 institutions represent 9.4% of the American international student enrolment total with the top 25 institutions holding 27.9% of total enrolments.

Nevertheless, there were some notable losers amongst the top international recruiters with University of California, Los Angeles and University of California, San Diego posting 11.5% and 7.5% declines respectively against the prior year.  220 institutions hosted over 1,000 international students in 2022/3.   Around 4,000 higher education institutions operate in the United States, with over 2,800 taking part in the Open Doors annual survey.

United States market outlook

Only 5.6% of total enrolled students (including OPT) in 2022/3 were international.  This is the highest percentage on record, in part due to domestic market weakness, meaning that total enrolments were at their lowest level since 2007/08. The proportion of international students in the United States is a long way behind its main competitors: the United Kingdom at 24%, (HESA 2022/3), Canada at 17.2% in 2020/21 (Statistics Canada) and Australia : 27% across all Higher Education Institutions in 2021 (Department of Education).  

Indeed, Canada and Australia undoubtedly now have a much higher proportion of overseas student enrolments than the latest available aggregate (domestic + international) statistics indicate, following the reported recent stellar international recruitment growth in both countries.   Canada issued around 718,000 study permits at higher education level in 2022, with overall permits reaching 800,000 (an increase of one third over the prior year). Australia posted an annual increase of 22% in its higher education international enrolments reported for January-August 2023. We can be reasonably confident that both of these nations are now in an exclusive club, with in excess of 30% of their respective higher education student populations being international.

Examined from this perspective, there should be plenty of headroom for American higher education institutions to expand their international numbers further, but will it happen?

Four factors that will impact future US enrolment growth rates in the next decade

1. STEM will continue to flow

The unrivalled reputation of the United States as a destination for STEM majors is an important competitive advantage, relative to alternative study country choices.  The central role of America in the global tech industry and the career opportunities, at home and abroad, afforded to those graduating from its leading, world-famous institutions gives a high degree of confidence in its future growth prospects. Put simply, for as long as there is international student mobility, demand for American universities will be in the top tier for a growing market of international STEM students.

2. Domestic woes, international push?

With domestic student numbers under pressure, due to falling birth rates and a post-pandemic drop in demand – college seems less attractive from a return-on-investment perspective, job opportunities for American non-graduates are relatively abundant – we might assume that many institutions will need to increase investment in proactive recruitment activities overseas. The Fall 2023 Snapshot found that 92% of American higher education institutions would like to grow international student numbers in the next five years.

Earlier this year, ICEF Monitor reported that nearly two-thirds of American universities and colleges now use agents, implying an expansion of international recruitment ambitions.  Although agent compensation based on commission is still shunned by many of them, models with fixed fees (albeit, like commission, often based on results) or where students pay an agent for counselling and application support services, still have scope to widen the global outreach of the sector.

3. An even stronger dollar?

Affordability for international students could be a constraint on the growth rates of international students, if we believe that America’s enviable economic track record will roll relentlessly onwards. The US dollar has held a relative premium against what might be reasonably expected from current economic indicators, and would retain its advantage in the case of American growth continuing to outperform the rest of the world. In the opposite scenario, it would also be likely to retain its strength in the case of world economic crisis.

Ethan Wu of the Unhedged column in the Financial Times observed in a recent podcast, that US dollar weakness would only be likely between these extremes, likening them to ‘the two kind of ends of your smile. They both push the dollar up. American exceptionalism and everything getting crushed. The dip in your smile, the middle of the smile when the dollar’s weakest is when the US is just kind of unremarkable and things are all right.’

However, November has seen a weakening of the dollar, with inflation falling and the anticipation that interest rates have peaked. Calling currency movements is fraught with danger, but international recruiters will be concerned that this month’s softening of the greenback only provides temporary respite.

4. Geopolitics / Trump redux

President Joe Biden met Xi Jinping, China’s leader on 15^th November with a little bit of diplomatic progress made, including the resumption of military contact.  The Chinese media even softened its anti-US rhetoric for a short while.  There is a lot more at stake in talks between these two powerhouses than the issue of international student mobility, but if the numbers of new Chinese students coming to America are to grow again in future, even small a improvement in the relationship is good news.  However, on the horizon looms Donald Trump who is currently the 11/8 favourite with bookmaker Betfair to win the US presidential election, even though he is not yet the nominated candidate. He is a much shorter 1/7 favourite to win the Republican Party’s endorsement. 

The detrimental impact of Trump’s rhetoric and policies on America’s international education sector, during his time in the White House, was outlined last year in an academic paper from lead authors Mingsi Song and Quan Li.  The ‘Trump Effect’ is shown to be statistically significant in having driven a proportion of international students to leading competitive destinations over the first 3 years of his presidency.  Open Doors data shows that American international student enrolments did indeed decline from the point Trump took power in 2017 to the 2019/20 academic year, before the onset of Covid.   If Trump is elected for a second term, which 11/8 odds infer is around a 42% probability, we should anticipate negative consequences for international student flows.

Conclusion

Research and insights platform, HolonIQ, forecasts that 9 million students will be studying outside their home country by 2030, in a market worth over $500bn in direct expenditure, over 2.5 times its 2019 value.  It also predicts that American international students numbers will rise to 1.2 million in the same time period (we assume this includes OPT students, which as stated earlier would be better excluded for relative comparison purposes).  HolonIQ analysts predict that this would represent a declining market share for the United States relative to the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. Uncertainty in Sino-American relations, and volatility in Saudi Arabian student flows, are cited as reasons why the 1.2 million headline forecast is also difficult to have confidence in, and highlights the operational planning challenges faced by America’s internationally active universities and colleges.

In our view, the secular growth trend in international student flows will surely raise most boats, including those in the United States. The nation’s strong market position in STEM disciplines will ensure it has a durable and compelling proposition in multiple global source markets for many years to come.  The long term direction of the US dollar, and relevant geopolitical relationships, are question marks that could weigh against this pull factor and future success will also depend on whether a wider range of American institutions do indeed embrace an international student recruitment push more boldly, as well as executing it effectively.

Forecasting international student numbers for other major destinations is not straightforward either, clouded by a range of unpredictable geopolitical and economic variables. But perhaps, most importantly, Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom do have a significant competitive advantage over the United States in the fact that Donald Trump cannot be re-elected as their next president in a year’s time.

Top ranking?

Rankings – league tables of universities – can be a flawed indicator for international students making their most significant education choice. The Higher Education institutions (HEIs) which appear at, or near, the top of them, are undoubtedly the heavyweights of the sector. They have a world-leading research impact.  Those students academically smart or fortunate enough to attend one of them traditionally enjoy advantages in the job market relative to graduates from lower-ranked alternatives.  Attendance at one of the top tier universities is a quality signal for many employers, even when the degree subject studied has no direct relationship with the content of the job.  And whilst much essential information about the student experience, value for money, or relative career success, is missing from some prominent ranking tables, students, and parents in many international source markets, find it hard to look beyond them.

From a university marketers’ perspective rankings are either a curse or a blessing, depending on where their HEI is ranked. It is an easier gig to promote Stanford University internationally than it is to promote the University of Staffordshire. Annual movements, upwards and downwards, within the middle of the table, can be significant from year to year. The universities of Chichester and Stirling are equal 53^rd in the 2024 UK University rankings recently published by The Times.  Last year they were 28 places apart at 66^th and 38^th respectively.  Do such big changes evidence any real shifts in quality?

The international playbook

This is an international marketers’ opportunity that goes way beyond the promotion and marketing communications which are the mainstay of many university international teams and, instead, requires a fully transversal Marketing approach.  Making a brand promise that is style over substance, or developing a great written value proposition for a specific part of programme portfolio lacks credibility unless there is a complete focus on delivering tangible benefits for international students.

1. Relevant programmes

Growth industries require an evolving skills base to serve the fast-changing needs of a global audience.  Green technology, artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, cyber security, and personalised medicine are some topical examples that build on core departmental strengths found in some of the so-called lower ranked institutions. Businesses the world over require practical expertise in data analysis and digital marketing.  Art and design, a subject which shines at many less storied UK universities, remains a desirable career path for many international students. Automotive engineering programmes are evolving to embrace the new technologies required to drive further growth in the global market for electronic vehicles.

The opportunity to build and amplify specialisms in the product portfolio – to stay relevant to industry and attract an international audience to a centre of excellence – is considerable.

Niche, super-focused providers meet the needs of growth industries such as hospitality and tourism – think Swiss-based hospitality schools – and the global sports industry – think the University Campus of Football Business (UCFB) and its Global Institute of Sport (GIS). However, broader-based universities have the additional advantage of being able to leverage a wider portfolio, featuring a range of programme strengths. Through a cross-disciplinary approach, post-1992 universities can borrow the expertise of other departments, close to the latest trends in cutting edge topics such as green tech or AI, and can differentiate their offering in mainstream, higher volume subjects such as business and management.

Researching industry and student demand in high potential source markets is fundamental to driving successful programme development for an international audience and focusing the senior leadership team on what their specific university is famous for, relative to its peers. The focus should be on quality and depth in a few internationally marketable subject areas, rather than trying to be everything to everyone, everywhere.  University departments that may normally operate quite independently must be incentivised to collaborate where advantageous to students and the needs of international employers, rather than being allowed to operate in their traditional silos. 

2. Employer relations

If relevant and market-leading programmes exist, especially in important specialisms, the motivation of companies and industries to identify and source international talent from an institution will increase.  Making close connections with a small number of large-scale, global employers with a presence in target source markets, will create opportunities for graduates and alumni and iteratively inform future programme content.  Such a strategy requires access to the connections of academics and the resourcing of dedicated roles that will seek out and engage with partner employers.

3. Alumni engagement

Investment in international alumni engagement is an afterthought in many universities.  It is clear, that a strong network of international alumni, no matter how modest in scale at the outset, brings opportunities to build a meaningful brand position in target source markets. It enables engagement with industry and encourages word-of-mouth referrals of prospective new students.  The alumni engagement team is a critical cog in the wheel of international market development and should be given a place at the top table of strategic decision-making.

4. Evidenced career pathways

It is not possible to understand international graduate outcomes and career paths without measuring them rigorously.  Universities need to build an evidence base to show that they drive value for international students in the job market. Testimonials are an important part of the international marketing communications toolkit but validated data, tracked over time, informs the development of a sustainable international strategy because it shines a light on what is really happening with graduate careers. 

Keeping it real

A recent report published by the Conversation examines the plight of international students in Australia.  Its main argument is that whilst they can readily receive a long duration post-study visa to stay in the country, large numbers of them are struggling to find employment appropriate to their degrees. Many of them are working in low-skilled jobs, only half are in full-time employment, and a reduced number of temporary graduate visa holders – one third, down from two thirds in 2014 – are transitioning to permanent residency when their visa expires.

The article underlines the need to match promise with reality when it comes to the marketing claims of career outcomes for international students.

Lessons from domestic life

For the audience of domestic students, there are strong case studies to celebrate for rankings-challenged HEIs.  Whilst the real-world outlook for post-study work opportunities in a study destination can change with the whims of the latest government policy, building on heritage and staying fully relevant to industry is a transferrable lesson when serving the international audience.

In a recent article for UK newspaper The Times, Emma Duncan wrote that it’s the post-1992 universities that are leading the way in the delivery of relevant, career-focused programmes to the right audiences.  Nottingham Trent University is highlighted as a success story – its 40,000 students making it the UK’s fifth biggest university.  Faculties such as computing are meeting the needs of students and employers in the region, since computer game design is one of the local region’s biggest industries.  London South Bank University has also grown rapidly in size and, Duncan writes, ‘half of the courses it offers are accredited by professional bodies.’ 

The University of East London, is celebrating its 125^th anniversary this year.  Founded in 1898 as the West Ham Technical Institute, its mission from the start was to deliver education focused on the needs of industry.  Success for such universities is not focused on rankings based on citations and academic research – the University of East London is currently ranked 131^st (last place) by the Times. Its ethos is driven not by rankings, but by relevance to industry and job placements during and after a programme of study.

International strategy

Yes, most of today’s student beneficiaries from these close industry connections are domestic. Current UK Government policy unfortunately brings some constraints, as we covered in a previous post.  But given the financial imperatives to recruit a cohort of international students with their higher fees, there are already the foundations of an authentic story to build on that can, with focus, resourcing, and expertise, be transferrable to international marketing strategy.

The pathways to relevant career opportunities must be real and they must be evidenced. Then universities in the squeezed-middle and wide-base of the rankings pyramid will have an opportunity to finally transcend the constraints of their nominal league position, in the source markets where many of them currently struggle, enabling them to flourish on the international stage.